shaman your analysis is fascinating.
I'm also wondering what correlation (if any) the delay in color change and leaf drop has with predicting the winter weather.
Thank you! I try to put into words things I've learned over the years... and I often wonder if I make any sense to anyone but myself. I sometimes feel like an old mad-man just muttering, mumbling, complaining, blurting out nonsense and in the process, scaring people off. Oh well, I'll be 68 years old next month and, like many old people, I just don't care what anyone thinks. Lol!
You mention a possible correlation, whether color delay or leaf drop might have in predicting winter weather? You know, all the Farmer's Almanacs, old wives' tales, woolly worm colors, etc. "predictions" I've heard over the years have, more often than not, been somewhat delusional when you've lived out in the country and get outside every single day of the year. Sometimes predictions appear to be true, but statistically, they don't pan out over time. I always thought it would be awesome to pass on first-hand knowledge of that type of phenomena, but as I get older and look back on all the cumulative seasons I've witnessed, I've come to the conclusion that it is all pretty much random. I think the plants and animals react the way they do, pre-season, from their immediate environment, water access, nutrition, stressors and such, and everything/everyone is pretty much blindsided or conversely, pleasantly surprised by the weather. Obviously there are larger trends at work, El Nino, La Nina, climate change, air and light pollution, but I'm still not seeing much in the way of actual predicting of weather by local leaf drop and color. I wish we could, though. Maybe I'm just not paying attention as much as I should?